Calculations and charts - Italian provinces (by region) - COVID-19 Epidemic
Marcelo Eduardo Redoschi
Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature
Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations
Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases
## [1] "2020-04-23"## denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1 Gorizia 164 4.14 10.07 1.18
## 2 Rieti 291 2.02 3.19 1.87
## 3 Bari 1247 1.87 4.97 1.00
## 4 Vercelli 1056 1.86 4.24 6.18
## 5 Catanzaro 201 1.36 2.03 0.56
## 6 Enna 386 1.33 2.12 2.34
## 7 Caltanissetta 145 1.17 2.84 0.55
## 8 Brindisi 527 1.16 2.93 1.34
## 9 Sondrio 1056 1.12 4.35 5.83
## 10 Trento 3727 0.97 2.22 6.89
## 11 Viterbo 366 0.92 2.52 1.15
## 12 Ravenna 956 0.81 1.59 2.45
## 13 Rimini 1911 0.81 1.97 5.64
## 14 Pordenone 607 0.72 1.34 1.94
## 15 Chieti 677 0.71 4.48 1.76
## 16 L'Aquila 241 0.70 1.26 0.81
## 17 Lodi 2833 0.53 1.65 12.31
## 18 Trieste 1152 0.53 1.41 4.91
## 19 Prato 486 0.48 1.46 1.89
## 20 Ragusa 74 0.42 2.78 0.23
## 21 Benevento 171 0.39 0.59 0.62
## 22 Palermo 433 0.38 1.41 0.35
## 23 Como 2764 0.37 3.10 4.61
## 24 Forlì-Cesena 1471 0.34 1.17 3.73
## 25 Grosseto 394 0.34 1.29 1.78
## 26 Genova 4031 0.33 2.39 4.79
## 27 Napoli 2316 0.32 2.34 0.75
## 28 Terni 334 0.30 0.91 1.48
## 29 Mantova 3022 0.28 1.51 7.33
## 30 Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 962 0.28 1.16 6.08
## 31 Lecco 2132 0.26 1.09 6.32
## 32 Bergamo 10946 0.26 0.90 9.82
## 33 Sassari 810 0.25 0.75 1.65
## 34 Biella 860 0.24 3.24 4.90
## 35 Monza e della Brianza 4317 0.24 1.50 4.94
## 36 Brescia 12308 0.23 1.07 9.72
## 37 Bolzano / Bozen 2435 0.22 0.79 4.58
## 38 La Spezia 803 0.16 1.26 3.66
## 39 Pistoia 592 0.15 1.54 2.02
## 40 Bologna 3971 0.10 1.38 3.91
## 41 Lecce 466 0.06 1.08 0.59
## 42 Reggio nell'Emilia 4482 0.03 1.01 8.43
## 43 Ferrara 857 0.00 2.88 2.48Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase
## [1] "2020-04-23"## denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1 Crotone 117 0.00 0.00 0.67
## 2 Vibo Valentia 71 0.00 0.00 0.44
## 3 Isernia 51 0.00 0.00 0.60
## 4 Nuoro 74 0.00 0.00 0.35
## 5 Oristano 52 0.00 0.00 0.33
## 6 Agrigento 132 0.00 0.00 0.30
## 7 Trapani 135 0.00 0.00 0.31
## 8 Lucca 1225 0.00 0.33 3.16
## 9 Ascoli Piceno 274 0.00 0.37 1.32
## 10 Arezzo 597 -0.03 1.70 1.74
## 11 Livorno 495 -0.07 0.20 1.48
## 12 Latina 454 -0.08 0.67 0.79
## 13 Siena 414 -0.08 0.49 1.55
## 14 Pavia 3874 -0.09 2.00 7.10
## 15 Cremona 5807 -0.11 1.77 16.18
## 16 Roma 4313 -0.12 1.32 0.99
## 17 Imperia 1199 -0.13 1.10 5.61
## 18 Massa-Carrara 959 -0.14 0.21 4.92
## 19 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1096 -0.15 0.09 8.72
## 20 Macerata 956 -0.16 1.06 3.04
## 21 Pisa 823 -0.17 0.61 1.96
## 22 Perugia 981 -0.17 0.00 1.49
## 23 Vicenza 2454 -0.18 0.86 2.85
## 24 Fermo 402 -0.18 0.75 2.31
## 25 Padova 3769 -0.20 0.48 4.02
## 26 Pesaro e Urbino 2374 -0.24 0.34 6.61
## 27 Modena 3490 -0.25 0.52 4.95
## 28 Reggio di Calabria 248 -0.28 0.40 0.45
## 29 Taranto 251 -0.28 0.80 0.44
## 30 Caserta 404 -0.33 0.00 0.44
## 31 Piacenza 3586 -0.36 1.50 12.49
## 32 Udine 931 -0.36 0.22 1.76
## 33 Ancona 1768 -0.36 0.23 3.75
## 34 Parma 2999 -0.40 0.87 6.64
## 35 Sud Sardegna 90 -0.40 1.12 0.26
## 36 Teramo 631 -0.42 -0.16 2.05
## 37 Verona 4222 -0.44 1.39 4.56
## 38 Campobasso 215 -0.47 0.00 0.97
## 39 Firenze 2795 -0.49 1.27 2.76
## 40 Varese 2340 -0.49 1.65 2.63
## 41 Matera 183 -0.59 1.10 0.92
## 42 Treviso 2395 -0.62 0.38 2.70
## 43 Messina 519 -0.68 0.78 0.83
## 44 Venezia 2308 -0.69 1.27 2.70
## 45 Milano 17277 -0.72 1.63 5.32
## 46 Foggia 956 -0.81 2.47 1.54
## 47 Frosinone 544 -0.82 0.37 1.11
## 48 Cosenza 430 -0.83 0.94 0.61
## 49 Avellino 432 -0.85 -0.46 1.03
## 50 Cuneo 2211 -0.90 1.24 3.77
## 51 Pescara 1236 -0.91 1.73 3.88
## 52 Potenza 173 -0.98 0.00 0.47
## 53 Torino 11241 -1.06 1.97 4.97
## 54 Salerno 640 -1.11 -0.16 0.58
## 55 Novara 2143 -1.45 0.94 5.81
## 56 Cagliari 228 -1.51 0.00 0.53
## 57 Alessandria 3034 -1.66 0.86 7.20
## 58 Catania 905 -1.71 2.14 0.82
## 59 Barletta-Andria-Trani 360 -1.87 0.56 0.92
## 60 Asti 1279 -1.94 1.91 5.96
## 61 Savona 999 -1.96 0.20 3.62
## 62 Belluno 987 -2.15 0.82 4.86
## 63 Siracusa 197 -2.49 0.00 0.49
## 64 Rovigo 403 -8.74 0.75 1.72Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100
Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.
## denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
## Cremona 5807 16.18 1
## Piacenza 3586 12.49 2
## Lodi 2833 12.31 3
## Bergamo 10946 9.82 4
## Brescia 12308 9.72 5
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1096 8.72 6
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4482 8.43 7
## Mantova 3022 7.33 8
## Alessandria 3034 7.20 9
## Pavia 3874 7.10 10
## Trento 3727 6.89 11
## Parma 2999 6.64 12
## Pesaro e Urbino 2374 6.61 13
## Lecco 2132 6.32 14
## Vercelli 1056 6.18 15
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 962 6.08 16
## Asti 1279 5.96 17
## Sondrio 1056 5.83 18
## Novara 2143 5.81 19
## Rimini 1911 5.64 20
## Imperia 1199 5.61 21
## Milano 17277 5.32 22
## Torino 11241 4.97 23
## Modena 3490 4.95 24
## Monza e della Brianza 4317 4.94 25
## Massa-Carrara 959 4.92 26
## Trieste 1152 4.91 27
## Biella 860 4.90 28
## Belluno 987 4.86 29
## Genova 4031 4.79 30
## Como 2764 4.61 31
## Bolzano / Bozen 2435 4.58 32
## Verona 4222 4.56 33
## Padova 3769 4.02 34
## Bologna 3971 3.91 35
## Pescara 1236 3.88 36
## Cuneo 2211 3.77 37
## Ancona 1768 3.75 38
## Forlì-Cesena 1471 3.73 39
## La Spezia 803 3.66 40
## Savona 999 3.62 41
## Lucca 1225 3.16 42
## Macerata 956 3.04 43
## Vicenza 2454 2.85 44
## Firenze 2795 2.76 45
## Venezia 2308 2.70 46
## Treviso 2395 2.70 47
## Varese 2340 2.63 48
## Ferrara 857 2.48 49
## Ravenna 956 2.45 50
## Enna 386 2.34 51
## Fermo 402 2.31 52
## Teramo 631 2.05 53
## Pistoia 592 2.02 54
## Pisa 823 1.96 55
## Pordenone 607 1.94 56
## Prato 486 1.89 57
## Rieti 291 1.87 58
## Grosseto 394 1.78 59
## Udine 931 1.76 60
## Chieti 677 1.76 61
## Arezzo 597 1.74 62
## Rovigo 403 1.72 63
## Sassari 810 1.65 64
## Siena 414 1.55 65
## Foggia 956 1.54 66
## Perugia 981 1.49 67
## Terni 334 1.48 68
## Livorno 495 1.48 69
## Brindisi 527 1.34 70
## Ascoli Piceno 274 1.32 71
## Gorizia 164 1.18 72
## Viterbo 366 1.15 73
## Frosinone 544 1.11 74
## Avellino 432 1.03 75
## Bari 1247 1.00 76
## Roma 4313 0.99 77
## Campobasso 215 0.97 78
## Matera 183 0.92 79
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 360 0.92 80
## Messina 519 0.83 81
## Catania 905 0.82 82
## L'Aquila 241 0.81 83
## Latina 454 0.79 84
## Napoli 2316 0.75 85
## Crotone 117 0.67 86
## Benevento 171 0.62 87
## Cosenza 430 0.61 88
## Isernia 51 0.60 89
## Lecce 466 0.59 90
## Salerno 640 0.58 91
## Catanzaro 201 0.56 92
## Caltanissetta 145 0.55 93
## Cagliari 228 0.53 94
## Siracusa 197 0.49 95
## Potenza 173 0.47 96
## Reggio di Calabria 248 0.45 97
## Vibo Valentia 71 0.44 98
## Caserta 404 0.44 99
## Taranto 251 0.44 100
## Nuoro 74 0.35 101
## Palermo 433 0.35 102
## Oristano 52 0.33 103
## Trapani 135 0.31 104
## Agrigento 132 0.30 105
## Sud Sardegna 90 0.26 106
## Ragusa 74 0.23 107## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0.2306 0.8755 2.0241 3.1843 4.9053 16.1775Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Chieti 677 1.7557600 4.48 3.76
## L'Aquila 241 0.8059365 1.26 0.56
## Pescara 1236 3.8757138 1.73 2.64
## Teramo 631 2.0483555 -0.16 0.27
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Matera 183 0.9246674 1.1 1.70
## Potenza 173 0.4740246 0.0 0.98
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Catanzaro 201 0.5609574 2.03 0.67
## Cosenza 430 0.6092783 0.94 1.77
## Crotone 117 0.6686478 0.00 0.00
## Reggio di Calabria 248 0.4525473 0.40 0.68
## Vibo Valentia 71 0.4435476 0.00 0.00
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Avellino 432 1.0327368 -0.46 0.39
## Benevento 171 0.6172884 0.59 0.20
## Caserta 404 0.4377197 0.00 0.33
## Napoli 2316 0.7507561 2.34 2.02
## Salerno 640 0.5826058 -0.16 0.96
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bologna 3971 3.913784 1.38 1.28
## Ferrara 857 2.479093 2.88 2.88
## Forlì-Cesena 1471 3.727571 1.17 0.83
## Modena 3490 4.947597 0.52 0.77
## Parma 2999 6.640377 0.87 1.28
## Piacenza 3586 12.488160 1.50 1.86
## Ravenna 956 2.454706 1.59 0.78
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4482 8.426539 1.01 0.99
## Rimini 1911 5.636885 1.97 1.16
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Gorizia 164 1.176445 10.07 5.92
## Pordenone 607 1.942195 1.34 0.61
## Trieste 1152 4.912727 1.41 0.88
## Udine 931 1.760620 0.22 0.58
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Frosinone 544 1.1122856 0.37 1.19
## Latina 454 0.7892166 0.67 0.75
## Rieti 291 1.8713465 3.19 1.17
## Roma 4313 0.9932726 1.32 1.43
## Viterbo 366 1.1544649 2.52 1.60
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Genova 4031 4.792078 2.39 2.06
## Imperia 1199 5.606996 1.10 1.22
## La Spezia 803 3.657381 1.26 1.10
## Savona 999 3.618726 0.20 2.16
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bergamo 10946 9.820652 0.90 0.64
## Brescia 12308 9.722312 1.07 0.84
## Como 2764 4.612786 3.10 2.72
## Cremona 5807 16.177515 1.77 1.88
## Lecco 2132 6.319284 1.09 0.83
## Lodi 2833 12.306797 1.65 1.12
## Mantova 3022 7.329757 1.51 1.23
## Milano 17277 5.315485 1.63 2.35
## Monza e della Brianza 4317 4.939727 1.50 1.27
## Pavia 3874 7.096694 2.00 2.09
## Sondrio 1056 5.831194 4.35 3.23
## Varese 2340 2.626947 1.65 2.14
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Ancona 1768 3.751899 0.23 0.59
## Ascoli Piceno 274 1.322528 0.37 0.37
## Fermo 402 2.313003 0.75 0.93
## Macerata 956 3.042861 1.06 1.21
## Pesaro e Urbino 2374 6.614914 0.34 0.58
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Campobasso 215 0.9718041 0 0.47
## Isernia 51 0.6044158 0 0.00
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Alessandria 3034 7.201793 0.86 2.53
## Asti 1279 5.958870 1.91 3.85
## Biella 860 4.897913 3.24 3.00
## Cuneo 2211 3.765981 1.24 2.14
## Novara 2143 5.807305 0.94 2.40
## Torino 11241 4.974944 1.97 3.03
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 962 6.075188 1.16 0.88
## Vercelli 1056 6.178654 4.24 2.38
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bari 1247 0.9960112 4.97 3.10
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 360 0.9230509 0.56 2.43
## Brindisi 527 1.3410522 2.93 1.77
## Foggia 956 1.5365254 2.47 3.27
## Lecce 466 0.5860647 1.08 1.02
## Taranto 251 0.4351927 0.80 1.09
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Cagliari 228 0.5289557 0.00 1.51
## Nuoro 74 0.3548310 0.00 0.00
## Oristano 52 0.3297254 0.00 0.00
## Sassari 810 1.6477782 0.75 0.50
## Sud Sardegna 90 0.2566113 1.12 1.53
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Agrigento 132 0.3035390 0.00 0.00
## Caltanissetta 145 0.5524693 2.84 1.66
## Catania 905 0.8170067 2.14 3.85
## Enna 386 2.3424036 2.12 0.79
## Messina 519 0.8279149 0.78 1.45
## Palermo 433 0.3456843 1.41 1.02
## Ragusa 74 0.2306065 2.78 2.36
## Siracusa 197 0.4934573 0.00 2.49
## Trapani 135 0.3135947 0.00 0.00
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Arezzo 597 1.742282 1.70 1.73
## Firenze 2795 2.763636 1.27 1.75
## Grosseto 394 1.777746 1.29 0.95
## Livorno 495 1.478353 0.20 0.27
## Lucca 1225 3.158226 0.33 0.33
## Massa-Carrara 959 4.921028 0.21 0.35
## Pisa 823 1.964027 0.61 0.78
## Pistoia 592 2.024118 1.54 1.39
## Prato 486 1.885797 1.46 0.98
## Siena 414 1.549419 0.49 0.57
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bolzano / Bozen 2435 4.584151 0.79 0.57
## Trento 3727 6.887847 2.22 1.26
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Perugia 981 1.494557 0.00 0.17
## Terni 334 1.480280 0.91 0.61
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1096 8.721532 0.09
## three_day_rate
## 0.24
## [1] "2020-04-23"
## province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Belluno 987 4.863267 0.82 2.97
## Padova 3769 4.018518 0.48 0.68
## Rovigo 403 1.715353 0.75 9.49
## Treviso 2395 2.697661 0.38 0.99
## Venezia 2308 2.704673 1.27 1.97
## Verona 4222 4.556949 1.39 1.83
## Vicenza 2454 2.845488 0.86 1.04
