Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                  Gorizia         164  4.14        10.07       1.18
## 2                    Rieti         291  2.02         3.19       1.87
## 3                     Bari        1247  1.87         4.97       1.00
## 4                 Vercelli        1056  1.86         4.24       6.18
## 5                Catanzaro         201  1.36         2.03       0.56
## 6                     Enna         386  1.33         2.12       2.34
## 7            Caltanissetta         145  1.17         2.84       0.55
## 8                 Brindisi         527  1.16         2.93       1.34
## 9                  Sondrio        1056  1.12         4.35       5.83
## 10                  Trento        3727  0.97         2.22       6.89
## 11                 Viterbo         366  0.92         2.52       1.15
## 12                 Ravenna         956  0.81         1.59       2.45
## 13                  Rimini        1911  0.81         1.97       5.64
## 14               Pordenone         607  0.72         1.34       1.94
## 15                  Chieti         677  0.71         4.48       1.76
## 16                L'Aquila         241  0.70         1.26       0.81
## 17                    Lodi        2833  0.53         1.65      12.31
## 18                 Trieste        1152  0.53         1.41       4.91
## 19                   Prato         486  0.48         1.46       1.89
## 20                  Ragusa          74  0.42         2.78       0.23
## 21               Benevento         171  0.39         0.59       0.62
## 22                 Palermo         433  0.38         1.41       0.35
## 23                    Como        2764  0.37         3.10       4.61
## 24            Forlì-Cesena        1471  0.34         1.17       3.73
## 25                Grosseto         394  0.34         1.29       1.78
## 26                  Genova        4031  0.33         2.39       4.79
## 27                  Napoli        2316  0.32         2.34       0.75
## 28                   Terni         334  0.30         0.91       1.48
## 29                 Mantova        3022  0.28         1.51       7.33
## 30    Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         962  0.28         1.16       6.08
## 31                   Lecco        2132  0.26         1.09       6.32
## 32                 Bergamo       10946  0.26         0.90       9.82
## 33                 Sassari         810  0.25         0.75       1.65
## 34                  Biella         860  0.24         3.24       4.90
## 35   Monza e della Brianza        4317  0.24         1.50       4.94
## 36                 Brescia       12308  0.23         1.07       9.72
## 37         Bolzano / Bozen        2435  0.22         0.79       4.58
## 38               La Spezia         803  0.16         1.26       3.66
## 39                 Pistoia         592  0.15         1.54       2.02
## 40                 Bologna        3971  0.10         1.38       3.91
## 41                   Lecce         466  0.06         1.08       0.59
## 42      Reggio nell'Emilia        4482  0.03         1.01       8.43
## 43                 Ferrara         857  0.00         2.88       2.48

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                         Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 2                   Vibo Valentia          71  0.00         0.00       0.44
## 3                         Isernia          51  0.00         0.00       0.60
## 4                           Nuoro          74  0.00         0.00       0.35
## 5                        Oristano          52  0.00         0.00       0.33
## 6                       Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 7                         Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 8                           Lucca        1225  0.00         0.33       3.16
## 9                   Ascoli Piceno         274  0.00         0.37       1.32
## 10                         Arezzo         597 -0.03         1.70       1.74
## 11                        Livorno         495 -0.07         0.20       1.48
## 12                         Latina         454 -0.08         0.67       0.79
## 13                          Siena         414 -0.08         0.49       1.55
## 14                          Pavia        3874 -0.09         2.00       7.10
## 15                        Cremona        5807 -0.11         1.77      16.18
## 16                           Roma        4313 -0.12         1.32       0.99
## 17                        Imperia        1199 -0.13         1.10       5.61
## 18                  Massa-Carrara         959 -0.14         0.21       4.92
## 19 Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1096 -0.15         0.09       8.72
## 20                       Macerata         956 -0.16         1.06       3.04
## 21                           Pisa         823 -0.17         0.61       1.96
## 22                        Perugia         981 -0.17         0.00       1.49
## 23                        Vicenza        2454 -0.18         0.86       2.85
## 24                          Fermo         402 -0.18         0.75       2.31
## 25                         Padova        3769 -0.20         0.48       4.02
## 26                Pesaro e Urbino        2374 -0.24         0.34       6.61
## 27                         Modena        3490 -0.25         0.52       4.95
## 28             Reggio di Calabria         248 -0.28         0.40       0.45
## 29                        Taranto         251 -0.28         0.80       0.44
## 30                        Caserta         404 -0.33         0.00       0.44
## 31                       Piacenza        3586 -0.36         1.50      12.49
## 32                          Udine         931 -0.36         0.22       1.76
## 33                         Ancona        1768 -0.36         0.23       3.75
## 34                          Parma        2999 -0.40         0.87       6.64
## 35                   Sud Sardegna          90 -0.40         1.12       0.26
## 36                         Teramo         631 -0.42        -0.16       2.05
## 37                         Verona        4222 -0.44         1.39       4.56
## 38                     Campobasso         215 -0.47         0.00       0.97
## 39                        Firenze        2795 -0.49         1.27       2.76
## 40                         Varese        2340 -0.49         1.65       2.63
## 41                         Matera         183 -0.59         1.10       0.92
## 42                        Treviso        2395 -0.62         0.38       2.70
## 43                        Messina         519 -0.68         0.78       0.83
## 44                        Venezia        2308 -0.69         1.27       2.70
## 45                         Milano       17277 -0.72         1.63       5.32
## 46                         Foggia         956 -0.81         2.47       1.54
## 47                      Frosinone         544 -0.82         0.37       1.11
## 48                        Cosenza         430 -0.83         0.94       0.61
## 49                       Avellino         432 -0.85        -0.46       1.03
## 50                          Cuneo        2211 -0.90         1.24       3.77
## 51                        Pescara        1236 -0.91         1.73       3.88
## 52                        Potenza         173 -0.98         0.00       0.47
## 53                         Torino       11241 -1.06         1.97       4.97
## 54                        Salerno         640 -1.11        -0.16       0.58
## 55                         Novara        2143 -1.45         0.94       5.81
## 56                       Cagliari         228 -1.51         0.00       0.53
## 57                    Alessandria        3034 -1.66         0.86       7.20
## 58                        Catania         905 -1.71         2.14       0.82
## 59          Barletta-Andria-Trani         360 -1.87         0.56       0.92
## 60                           Asti        1279 -1.94         1.91       5.96
## 61                         Savona         999 -1.96         0.20       3.62
## 62                        Belluno         987 -2.15         0.82       4.86
## 63                       Siracusa         197 -2.49         0.00       0.49
## 64                         Rovigo         403 -8.74         0.75       1.72

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5807           16.18   1
##                        Piacenza        3586           12.49   2
##                            Lodi        2833           12.31   3
##                         Bergamo       10946            9.82   4
##                         Brescia       12308            9.72   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1096            8.72   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4482            8.43   7
##                         Mantova        3022            7.33   8
##                     Alessandria        3034            7.20   9
##                           Pavia        3874            7.10  10
##                          Trento        3727            6.89  11
##                           Parma        2999            6.64  12
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2374            6.61  13
##                           Lecco        2132            6.32  14
##                        Vercelli        1056            6.18  15
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         962            6.08  16
##                            Asti        1279            5.96  17
##                         Sondrio        1056            5.83  18
##                          Novara        2143            5.81  19
##                          Rimini        1911            5.64  20
##                         Imperia        1199            5.61  21
##                          Milano       17277            5.32  22
##                          Torino       11241            4.97  23
##                          Modena        3490            4.95  24
##           Monza e della Brianza        4317            4.94  25
##                   Massa-Carrara         959            4.92  26
##                         Trieste        1152            4.91  27
##                          Biella         860            4.90  28
##                         Belluno         987            4.86  29
##                          Genova        4031            4.79  30
##                            Como        2764            4.61  31
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2435            4.58  32
##                          Verona        4222            4.56  33
##                          Padova        3769            4.02  34
##                         Bologna        3971            3.91  35
##                         Pescara        1236            3.88  36
##                           Cuneo        2211            3.77  37
##                          Ancona        1768            3.75  38
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1471            3.73  39
##                       La Spezia         803            3.66  40
##                          Savona         999            3.62  41
##                           Lucca        1225            3.16  42
##                        Macerata         956            3.04  43
##                         Vicenza        2454            2.85  44
##                         Firenze        2795            2.76  45
##                         Venezia        2308            2.70  46
##                         Treviso        2395            2.70  47
##                          Varese        2340            2.63  48
##                         Ferrara         857            2.48  49
##                         Ravenna         956            2.45  50
##                            Enna         386            2.34  51
##                           Fermo         402            2.31  52
##                          Teramo         631            2.05  53
##                         Pistoia         592            2.02  54
##                            Pisa         823            1.96  55
##                       Pordenone         607            1.94  56
##                           Prato         486            1.89  57
##                           Rieti         291            1.87  58
##                        Grosseto         394            1.78  59
##                           Udine         931            1.76  60
##                          Chieti         677            1.76  61
##                          Arezzo         597            1.74  62
##                          Rovigo         403            1.72  63
##                         Sassari         810            1.65  64
##                           Siena         414            1.55  65
##                          Foggia         956            1.54  66
##                         Perugia         981            1.49  67
##                           Terni         334            1.48  68
##                         Livorno         495            1.48  69
##                        Brindisi         527            1.34  70
##                   Ascoli Piceno         274            1.32  71
##                         Gorizia         164            1.18  72
##                         Viterbo         366            1.15  73
##                       Frosinone         544            1.11  74
##                        Avellino         432            1.03  75
##                            Bari        1247            1.00  76
##                            Roma        4313            0.99  77
##                      Campobasso         215            0.97  78
##                          Matera         183            0.92  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         360            0.92  80
##                         Messina         519            0.83  81
##                         Catania         905            0.82  82
##                        L'Aquila         241            0.81  83
##                          Latina         454            0.79  84
##                          Napoli        2316            0.75  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         171            0.62  87
##                         Cosenza         430            0.61  88
##                         Isernia          51            0.60  89
##                           Lecce         466            0.59  90
##                         Salerno         640            0.58  91
##                       Catanzaro         201            0.56  92
##                   Caltanissetta         145            0.55  93
##                        Cagliari         228            0.53  94
##                        Siracusa         197            0.49  95
##                         Potenza         173            0.47  96
##              Reggio di Calabria         248            0.45  97
##                   Vibo Valentia          71            0.44  98
##                         Caserta         404            0.44  99
##                         Taranto         251            0.44 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         433            0.35 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          90            0.26 106
##                          Ragusa          74            0.23 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2306  0.8755  2.0241  3.1843  4.9053 16.1775

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         677       1.7557600         4.48           3.76
##  L'Aquila         241       0.8059365         1.26           0.56
##   Pescara        1236       3.8757138         1.73           2.64
##    Teramo         631       2.0483555        -0.16           0.27

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         183       0.9246674          1.1           1.70
##   Potenza         173       0.4740246          0.0           0.98

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         201       0.5609574         2.03           0.67
##             Cosenza         430       0.6092783         0.94           1.77
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         248       0.4525473         0.40           0.68
##       Vibo Valentia          71       0.4435476         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         432       1.0327368        -0.46           0.39
##  Benevento         171       0.6172884         0.59           0.20
##    Caserta         404       0.4377197         0.00           0.33
##     Napoli        2316       0.7507561         2.34           2.02
##    Salerno         640       0.5826058        -0.16           0.96

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        3971        3.913784         1.38           1.28
##             Ferrara         857        2.479093         2.88           2.88
##        Forlì-Cesena        1471        3.727571         1.17           0.83
##              Modena        3490        4.947597         0.52           0.77
##               Parma        2999        6.640377         0.87           1.28
##            Piacenza        3586       12.488160         1.50           1.86
##             Ravenna         956        2.454706         1.59           0.78
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4482        8.426539         1.01           0.99
##              Rimini        1911        5.636885         1.97           1.16

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         164        1.176445        10.07           5.92
##  Pordenone         607        1.942195         1.34           0.61
##    Trieste        1152        4.912727         1.41           0.88
##      Udine         931        1.760620         0.22           0.58

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         544       1.1122856         0.37           1.19
##     Latina         454       0.7892166         0.67           0.75
##      Rieti         291       1.8713465         3.19           1.17
##       Roma        4313       0.9932726         1.32           1.43
##    Viterbo         366       1.1544649         2.52           1.60

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        4031        4.792078         2.39           2.06
##    Imperia        1199        5.606996         1.10           1.22
##  La Spezia         803        3.657381         1.26           1.10
##     Savona         999        3.618726         0.20           2.16

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       10946        9.820652         0.90           0.64
##                Brescia       12308        9.722312         1.07           0.84
##                   Como        2764        4.612786         3.10           2.72
##                Cremona        5807       16.177515         1.77           1.88
##                  Lecco        2132        6.319284         1.09           0.83
##                   Lodi        2833       12.306797         1.65           1.12
##                Mantova        3022        7.329757         1.51           1.23
##                 Milano       17277        5.315485         1.63           2.35
##  Monza e della Brianza        4317        4.939727         1.50           1.27
##                  Pavia        3874        7.096694         2.00           2.09
##                Sondrio        1056        5.831194         4.35           3.23
##                 Varese        2340        2.626947         1.65           2.14

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1768        3.751899         0.23           0.59
##    Ascoli Piceno         274        1.322528         0.37           0.37
##            Fermo         402        2.313003         0.75           0.93
##         Macerata         956        3.042861         1.06           1.21
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2374        6.614914         0.34           0.58

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         215       0.9718041            0           0.47
##     Isernia          51       0.6044158            0           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        3034        7.201793         0.86           2.53
##                  Asti        1279        5.958870         1.91           3.85
##                Biella         860        4.897913         3.24           3.00
##                 Cuneo        2211        3.765981         1.24           2.14
##                Novara        2143        5.807305         0.94           2.40
##                Torino       11241        4.974944         1.97           3.03
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         962        6.075188         1.16           0.88
##              Vercelli        1056        6.178654         4.24           2.38

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1247       0.9960112         4.97           3.10
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         360       0.9230509         0.56           2.43
##               Brindisi         527       1.3410522         2.93           1.77
##                 Foggia         956       1.5365254         2.47           3.27
##                  Lecce         466       0.5860647         1.08           1.02
##                Taranto         251       0.4351927         0.80           1.09

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         228       0.5289557         0.00           1.51
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         0.00           0.00
##      Oristano          52       0.3297254         0.00           0.00
##       Sassari         810       1.6477782         0.75           0.50
##  Sud Sardegna          90       0.2566113         1.12           1.53

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         145       0.5524693         2.84           1.66
##        Catania         905       0.8170067         2.14           3.85
##           Enna         386       2.3424036         2.12           0.79
##        Messina         519       0.8279149         0.78           1.45
##        Palermo         433       0.3456843         1.41           1.02
##         Ragusa          74       0.2306065         2.78           2.36
##       Siracusa         197       0.4934573         0.00           2.49
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         597        1.742282         1.70           1.73
##        Firenze        2795        2.763636         1.27           1.75
##       Grosseto         394        1.777746         1.29           0.95
##        Livorno         495        1.478353         0.20           0.27
##          Lucca        1225        3.158226         0.33           0.33
##  Massa-Carrara         959        4.921028         0.21           0.35
##           Pisa         823        1.964027         0.61           0.78
##        Pistoia         592        2.024118         1.54           1.39
##          Prato         486        1.885797         1.46           0.98
##          Siena         414        1.549419         0.49           0.57

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2435        4.584151         0.79           0.57
##           Trento        3727        6.887847         2.22           1.26

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         981        1.494557         0.00           0.17
##     Terni         334        1.480280         0.91           0.61

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1096        8.721532         0.09
##  three_day_rate
##            0.24

## [1] "2020-04-23"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno         987        4.863267         0.82           2.97
##    Padova        3769        4.018518         0.48           0.68
##    Rovigo         403        1.715353         0.75           9.49
##   Treviso        2395        2.697661         0.38           0.99
##   Venezia        2308        2.704673         1.27           1.97
##    Verona        4222        4.556949         1.39           1.83
##   Vicenza        2454        2.845488         0.86           1.04